Indian Rupee Exchange Rates for 31/03/2012 (31 March 2012)

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Economic growth under Modi government

DISCLAIMER- THIS IS NOT A POST BY ME. I AM MERELY SHARING THE POST BY COPY PASTING IT HERE.

SOURCE OF THIS ENTIRE ARTICLE Quora Article by SAKET KUMAR

Original Article has all pictures and graphs for you to refer to. This post only has the text. The text in Bold are hyperlinks in the original article which not here.

I am trained as a Scientist so first I have to present credible relevant data before I can convince anyone. First I will answer the question with 1 picture and explain 3 parameters.
The below image is not fake. They are NASA satellite images of India taken during night time.

As you can see one on the left is from 2012 and on the right is from 2016. The research paper written by Luis R. Martinez from University of Chicago shows that increased use of electricity at night is parallel to country’s economic growth. Further he states in that paper authoritarian countries like China and Russia are fudging their GDP anywhere from 15 to 30% every year. You can read the research paper here How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates? or you can read Washington Post article .
Now the 3 Parameters
Modi became PM on May 26th 2014. In October 2014 IMF came out with a report which said** India set to become $2 trillion economy in 2014: IMF** . India’s GDP was ~$1.9 Trillion when Modi became PM. Fast forward now the same IMF says India’s GDP is $3.2 Trillion . Here is the snap shot directly from IMF website.

**Note: IMF always slightly understates GDP to account for any observational bias and inaccuracies. This is GDP estimate from a totally neutral source so you can’t say this is BJP propaganda or call it as fake.
→Conclusion from GDP data: Modi government added $1.2 Trillion to GDP in 5 years. India reached $1 Trillion GDP in 2007 India had joined trillion-dollar club in 2007 so even after 7 years of being in power UPA couldn’t even make India $2 Trillion economy. When Atalji left office in 2004 India had $700 billion GDP according to World bank report . So UPA in 10 years added $1.2 Trillion in GDP but Modiji did the same in 5 years.
Inflation: Inflation in Economic terms is general increase in prices and fall in purchasing power parity. As you know when there is increase in inflation prices rise on many goods and services and your purchasing power decreases. Just because prices increased on goods and services doesn’t mean your boss is going to increase your salary unless you are a Central government employee where you get Dearness allowance - Wikipedia to compensate for high inflation. Let’s look at inflation from 1998 :

Inflation directly affects the common man. When Atalji came to power in 1998 inflation was through the roof at 13.5%. He cracked down on inflation and brought it down to ~4% and maintained the same through out his Premiership. This is a PM who cared for the common man. Now look at the graph after 2004. UPA always maintained high inflation which on average was above 8%+ which emptied people’s pockets faster than they could spend. Just see how the graph dips when Modi became PM in 2014. Keeping inflation down is one of the paramount tasks of any BJP Prime Minister.
Important Note: GDP growth in some ways is tied to inflation. If you have a GDP growth rate of 10% with 10% inflation then it’s no use. It’s better to have GDP growth of 5% with low inflation rate of below 2%. Lower the inflation the better for the economy as long as it is not in negative. UPA always boasts about high GDP but never ever mention inflation rate during their term because they know they will be caught with pants down. Some people can see through the BS of UPA’s high GDP growth. GDP surged under UPA because it purchased growth at a high price .
→Conclusion from Inflation data: Inflation was always low under Atalji and Modiji. No Economist can deny that. No amount of propaganda from Congress can deny this brutal truth. In between all the lies even the scammer, fraud and corrupt Chiddu accepts it** High inflation was a big red in the UPA-2 report card: P Chidambaram**
Forex Reserves: When Atalji became PM in 1998 India’s forex reserves was ~$30 billion . When he left office in 2004 it had jumped to $114 billion . When Modi became PM on May 26th 2014 the forex reserves was $303 billion . Now as of March 13th 2020 forex reserves is** Forex reserves surge by $5.69 billion to reach record $487.23 bn** .
***Note: It is exactly because of our lower forex reserves we had to approach IMF in 1991. In return for IMF bail out India had to open up it’s markets for outside investment. If India doesn’t have enough forex then Economy comes to a standstill as India will lack the capability to pay for external goods and services which it imports. We import 90% of our Oil from abroad. If there is no oil then there is no economy.
→Conclusion from Forex data: Atalji as PM increased forex from $30 billion to $114 billion in 6 years during Pokran sanctions and unfavorable economic climate. Atalji’s government added $114B - $30B = $84 billion into forex. At the end of UPA tenure forex was $303 billion. So UPA in 10 years added $303B - $114B = $189 billion. Now how much did Modi Sarkar added in 5 years? $487B - $303B = $184 billion. As you can see just like GDP what UPA did in 10 years Modiji government has done the same for forex in 5 years. And we still have 4 more years to go. I hope India reaches $1 Trillion in forex which can help India project power. None of the countries who are barking on CAA will bark again when you have a war chest of Trillion dollars.
Final Conclusion: I have only added 3 parameters to my answer since the question is asking everything to be in 1 picture which is not possible. But anyone can tell you simple truth if Modiji hasn’t done anything since he became PM then all the above parameters would be worse off than how UPA left them in 2014. Those 3 are very very important parameters for India. If India is performing worse like some morons who are predicting apocalypse for Indian economy are saying then the data is not backing them up.
submitted by DeadBodiesinMyArse to IndiaSpeaks [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Coinmetro ICO is underway: Here's the platform explained rather well in a video by the CEO + My Notes

TL;DR video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uot5zarpOg
If you find this useful and want to participate use my link for your bonus: http://coinmetro.club
CEO Kevin Murcko explains why CoinMetro is the decentralized crypto exchange of the future. ICO / Token Sale on now.
My Notes =====
If you find this useful and want to participate use my link for your bonus: http://coinmetro.club
submitted by l33tdude to icocrypto [link] [comments]

Last few hours to get in on Coinmetro: a new crypto exchange nearing a public beta

Less than 12 hours until this crowd sale ends. And it was a great success having raised more than $14.5 million to date.
In case you didn't know the XCM asset powering CoinMetro gives ICO buyers the chance to be part of token generation events, and grants access to LIFETIME discounts, bonuses and other additional extras for participating in the sale. Not to mention 5-10x by when the CM exchange launches.
Supporters still have until midnight the 31st of March to invest. See below for my personal notes on what this token is for...
Use this link for 2.5% bonus: http://cryptobonus.club/go/coinmetro-bonus
===== MY NOTES ON XCM (COINMETRO) =====
coinmetro is nearly done building a next generation crypto exchange succesful ICO has raised $14.5M = this project is now green lit big focus on legal compliance and following all regulation which will be important as more regulations are coming, most other exchanges are unprepared exchange beta on track for April experienced team that already runs a highly-rated forex exchange since 2012 (fxpig) fiat support! XCM token is used to pay transaction fees kind of like binance but it's mandatory and if you dont buy it manually it buys it automatically for you, part of the token gets burned with every buy/sell plethora of order types: markets, limits, stops, limit stop, one cancels other, fill or kill, immediate or cancel, good till cancelled leverage trading debit cards (confirmed and separate provider from the one that just got cucked) in-house developed ICO platform (they use it themselves for their own ICO even) tokenized asset management (invest in pro investors, or become one for commission) exchange traded crypto funds (this will stop ICO coins from crashing on day 1)
CEO interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uot5zarpOg
Grab 2.5% bonus coins via this link: http://cryptobonus.club/go/coinmetro-bonus
submitted by milezteg to ICOAnalysis [link] [comments]

Last few hours to get in on Coinmetro ICO: a new crypto exchange close to a public beta

Less than 12 hours until this crowd sale ends. And it was a great success having raised more than $14.5 million to date.
In case you didn't know the XCM asset powering CoinMetro gives ICO buyers the chance to be part of token generation events, and grants access to LIFETIME discounts, bonuses and other additional extras for participating in the sale. Not to mention 5-10x by when the CM exchange launches.
Supporters still have until midnight the 31st of March to invest. See below for my personal notes on what this token is for...
Use this link for 2.5% bonus: http://cryptobonus.club/go/coinmetro-bonus
===== MY NOTES ON XCM (COINMETRO) =====
coinmetro is nearly done building a next generation crypto exchange succesful ICO has raised $14.5M = this project is now green lit big focus on legal compliance and following all regulation which will be important as more regulations are coming, most other exchanges are unprepared exchange beta on track for April experienced team that already runs a highly-rated forex exchange since 2012 (fxpig) fiat support! XCM token is used to pay transaction fees kind of like binance but it's mandatory and if you dont buy it manually it buys it automatically for you, part of the token gets burned with every buy/sell plethora of order types: markets, limits, stops, limit stop, one cancels other, fill or kill, immediate or cancel, good till cancelled leverage trading debit cards (confirmed and separate provider from the one that just got cucked) in-house developed ICO platform (they use it themselves for their own ICO even) tokenized asset management (invest in pro investors, or become one for commission) exchange traded crypto funds (this will stop ICO coins from crashing on day 1)
CEO interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uot5zarpOg
Grab 2.5% bonus coins via this link: http://cryptobonus.club/go/coinmetro-bonus
submitted by milezteg to icocrypto [link] [comments]

Can you guys give me some advice on my resume?

Advice about grammatical errors is welcome because there would be many.
Thanks in advance.
*I'm looking for a trainee program as J-1 visa in US.
SUMMARY 3 years of experience in tough projects for financial institutions, which required high reliability and high performance and sometimes required over three hundreds working hours a month. 0.5 years of experience as a freelance web developer. EDUCATION Bachelor of Economics, March 2011 XXXX University, Tokyo, Japan QUALIFICATIONS Passed CMA (Chartered Member of the Securities Analysts Association of Japan) examinations, July 2009 3rd grade Certified Skilled Worker of Financial Planning, September 2008 Class-2 (Securities) Sales Representative, May 2008 Applied Information Technology Engineer, June 2009 TOEFL iBT Score 82, February 2009 Ordinary Vehicle License, May 2008 Ordinary Motorcycle License, March 2009 AWARDS Nikkei Stock League 2008 Nominated: XXXXXXX EXPERIENCE Freelance Financial Statements Visualizer site (XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX) | Dec 2014 Developed the entire application and deployed it to AWS. Codes in JavaScript and Ruby on Rails. Web-scraping from a data source. The application running on AWS. Bitcoin Exchange Platform site (XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX) | July 2014 - Ongoing Registered a company, XXXXXXX Inc. (XXXXXXXXX), constructed development/stage/production environments, developed the entire application from an open source and deployed it. Still in beta. Codes in HTML, JavaScript, Ruby on Rails. Web-scraping from a bank’s website. The application running with bitcoind on AWS (EC2, S3, RDS, CloudWatch, Load Balancers, Auto Scaling), Nginx, Unicorn. Line Sheet Maker site (XXXXXXXXXX) | Oct 2014 Selected frameworks and implemented a PDF generating engine. Codes in Ruby on Rails (RSpec, Wicked PDF, Liquid) and JavaScript (jQuery) Online Fashion Shopping site (XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX) | July 2014 – Sept 2014 Implemented tests, improved performance and fixed bugs. Codes in Ruby on Rails (Spree, RSpec, capybara) and JavaScript (jQuery). XXXXXXXX, Inc. (Company’s name changed to XXXXXXXXXXX Inc. on Jan 2014), Tokyo, Japan Enhancement of an inter-process messaging middleware to support UDP and the latest OSs | Mar 2014 – Jun 2014 Built compilation/testing/performance measurement environments and conducted acceptance tests. Codes in C++. Environments are Windows and Linux. Market-access Engine of Order Execution System of a bank and a securities company | Dec 2013 – Apr 2014 Implemented unit tests, conducted unit/integration tests and fixed bugs. Codes in C++. Debugging with GDB. The engine is connected to Osaka Exchange with FIX protocol and to Reuters with RFA. The environment is Linux. Order Management System for financial derivative products of a securities company | May 2013 – Nov 2013 Planned basic/detailed design specification, implemented requirements/unit tests, conducted integration testing, analyzed performance and tuned code/SQL/Oracle parameters. This project is enhancement development. Codes in Java (JNI, Original distributed calculation framework, JasperReports, Hibernate) and C++(for financial products pricing libraries). Batches in WSH and PL/SQL. Order Management System with distributed calculation for financial derivative products | Jan 2013 – Apr 2013 Constructed distributed calculation computing environment with 750 CPU cores, tuned OS/Oracle/JVM parameters, and surveyed performance between two different architectures to propose new architecture for YYY Securities Inc. Codes in Java (Spring, Hibernate, GridGain, Original distributed calculation framework). Debugging with JDB. Environments are Windows Server and Oracle database. Analysis tools are jConsole, jdb, WSH, Windows Performance Monitor, Statspack. Interfaces of Order Management System for financial derivative products of a bank | Apr 2012 – Dec 2012 Planned basic/detailed design specification, implemented interfaces/unit tests and conducted integration testing. Codes in Java (Spring, Hibernate, JUnit, mockito, JasperReports). The application is connected to Reuteres with RFA and to others with HULFT. Online Forex Trading System of a securities company (OTC and Exchange Broking) | Jun 2011 – Mar 2012 On call 24 hours for system troubleshooting, point of contact for clients, release engineering, bug fixes Codes in Java (Struts, JSP, Hibernate, Velocity), JavaScript, HTML, bash. Operating tools are Nagios, MRTG, Linux, Windows Server, JP1. Internships XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan | Aug 2009 Surveyed two methods of calculating forward rate curves Simulations in Excel VBA XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan | Aug 2008 Planned requirements specification, implemented and gave demonstrations of a ERP package for Correspondence Course Codes in Delphi 
submitted by zhouyang to resumes [link] [comments]

Daily Market Review - March 15th 2012 LIVE Forex Trading - NY Session 16th March 2020 Lior Cohen - YouTube Forex Scalper FXSS Minnie Dlamini blasts Forex traders testifying in her comments

Spot rates on 31 December 2011 and 31 March 2012 View online Download CSV 767Bytes This file may not be suitable for users of assistive technology. Forex Rates - March 2012 - Dollar, Pound Sterling, Euro exchange rates of Kerala banks, foreign exchange rates of today, rate charts of months, 24 hour forex rates etc. The Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) adopted the Appellate Body report and the panel report, as modified by the Appellate Body report, on 23 March 2012.5 The panel and the Appellate Body in the original proceedings found that certain measures of the United States, including measures ado tweet at 10:23am: BOEING: The EU will immediately re-engage with the U.S. in a positive and constructive manner ... Monday, March 5, 2012. Maybank Credit Card Forex Admin Rates - Mastercard. This is a long overdue post. It was well documented in the Lowyat forum that Maybank (MBB) offers the best conversion rates for their Visa and Mastercard due to their low admin fee. Recently however I noticed that when I used my MBB cards for foreign transactions, the rate was not as great as before. I was not alone ... 31 Dec 2012: 1.035937: 31 Dec 2013: 0.967915: 31 Dec 2014: 0.902813: 31 Dec 2015: 0.752124: 31 Dec 2016: 0.743664: 31 Dec 2017: 0.76683: 31 Dec 2018: 0.747466: 31 Dec 2019: 0.695358: 11 Nov 2020: 0.682462: Average {{results.average}} {{point.Date}} {{point.Rate}} **1 UNIT of {{results.base}} = X UNITS of {{results.term}} {{errors.message}} The request has failed for an unknown reason. Learn ... View over 20 years of historical exchange rate data, including yearly and monthly average rates in various currencies. Live Forex Rates Ticker; Live Currency Toolbar; Wed, 11th November 2020. US Dollar Exchange Rates for 31/03/2012 (31 March 2012) See top 15 exchange rates history matrix for 31 March 2012. Convert ... Forex Rates - February 2012 - Dollar, Pound Sterling, Euro exchange rates of Kerala banks, foreign exchange rates of today, rate charts of months, 24 hour forex rates etc. Live Forex Rates Ticker; Live Currency Toolbar; Mon, 9th November 2020. Indian Rupee Exchange Rates for 31/03/2012 (31 March 2012) See top 15 exchange rates history matrix for 31 March 2012 ... Currency Converter. Check today's rates. Currency Charts. Review historical trends for any currency pair up to the last 10 years. Rate Alerts. Set your target rate and we will alert you once met

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Daily Market Review - March 15th 2012

LIVE Forex Trading - NY Session 24th July 2020 WicksDontLie 2,012 watching Live now Anton Kreil Annihilates Retail Brokers and "Trading Educators" - Duration: 2:02:39. This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue 26 March 2012 - 9 trades Al Brooks style - Duration: 5:31. Moo Trader 17,243 views. 5:31 . Urban Forex 10 Pips Per Day Scalping Strategy - Duration: 3:45. Urban Forex 159,525 views. 3:45. Short ... Market Movers is presented by Lior Cohen of Trading NRG and Yohay Elam of Forex Crunch. As you can see from the title, we are still in a testing period. You are welcome to listen, subscribe and ... MegaTrade101 . . . Aims to provide active investors & FX traders the right, useful information, to have a better orientation and clear understanding of the F... Minnie Dlamini blasts Forex traders testifying in her comments. AAA Binary Options MT4 Indicator Forex 80% Rate GBP/USD Example - Duration: 5 ... Best Forex Trading Strategy 2018 by Tani Forex - Duration: 13:13. Tani Forex 20,829 views. 13:13. How to Make $500 ...

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